Lebanon says 22 killed by Israeli forces after withdrawal deadline missed

Lebanon has reported that Israeli forces killed 22 people and injured 124 others in southern Lebanon after missing the deadline for their withdrawal. The Lebanese health ministry stated that among the dead were women, and the injured included women, children, and a paramedic.

Despite warnings from both the Lebanese and Israeli armies, as well as the UN, thousands of residents returned to villages and towns near the border on Sunday. The Israeli military, which remains in parts of Lebanon, claimed the 60-day ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah had not been fully implemented, and it is unclear how many Israeli soldiers remain or how long they will stay.

According to the Lebanese health ministry, Israeli forces attacked civilians trying to enter areas still under occupation. The Lebanese army confirmed that one soldier had been killed and another wounded by Israeli fire.

Israel maintained that it needed more time to dismantle Hezbollah's infrastructure in southern Lebanon, with a potential 30-day extension of the initial withdrawal deadline. Meanwhile, Hezbollah's media outlet encouraged people to return to the south, with some convoys carrying Hezbollah's flags.

This escalation marks a critical challenge for Lebanon's new president, Joseph Aoun, who is focused on restoring stability after the country's ongoing crises. He has emphasized Lebanon's sovereignty and territorial integrity, stating he is closely monitoring the situation.

The conflict, which escalated in September, resulted in significant loss of life and the displacement of over 1.2 million Lebanese. The ceasefire agreement, brokered by the US and France, mandated the withdrawal of Israeli troops and the removal of Hezbollah fighters from southern Lebanon, while Lebanese forces were expected to replace Hezbollah’s influence.

Despite the ceasefire, Israel stated that the withdrawal depended on the Lebanese army's full deployment in the region and Hezbollah's removal beyond the Litani River, about 30 km from the Israeli-Lebanese border. The Lebanese army cited delays in deployment due to Israel's failure to adhere to the withdrawal timeline.

Hezbollah has not yet responded, but previously warned that failure to meet the deadline would violate Lebanese sovereignty and signal a new phase of occupation.

The statement did not address how the group would respond if Israeli troops remained in the country, which may reflect the precarious situation Hezbollah finds itself in. The Iranian-backed militant, political, and social movement was heavily weakened during the conflict with Israel, though it still retains considerable support among Lebanon’s Shia Muslim population.

The ceasefire agreement was largely seen as a defeat for Hezbollah, as it suffered significant losses, including the depletion of its infrastructure and weapons, along with the deaths of hundreds of fighters and key figures, such as longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Despite some violations of the truce prior to the withdrawal deadline, the ceasefire ended the violence that caused billions of dollars in damage, allowing many Lebanese residents to return to their homes.

Should Hezbollah choose to resume attacks, it will face opposition from critics who have accused the group of dragging Lebanon into a war not in the country's interest, and possibly even from some of its own supporters.

Hezbollah's political influence has waned in recent months. Earlier this January, Lebanon's parliament managed to elect a new president after over two years of deadlock, a situation many blame on Hezbollah's interference. The new president, Aoun, has committed to ambitious reforms aimed at rebuilding Lebanon's institutions, tackling widespread corruption, and addressing the collapsing economy. One of the key reforms he has promised is limiting the right to bear arms, potentially curbing Hezbollah’s military power.

However, it is uncertain if Lebanon's army is both capable and willing to challenge Hezbollah, given the risks of internal violence. In the context of the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah conflict, Israel's main objective has been to enable the return of roughly 60,000 displaced residents in the north of Lebanon and to push Hezbollah away from the border areas. Hezbollah escalated the situation by launching attacks on Israel shortly after Hamas’s assaults on southern Israel in October 2023, claiming solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.

While the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) targeted what they said were Hezbollah military bases in bombed apartment complexes, reports suggest that many of the casualties were civilians. Amidst the violence, there are signs of a fragile ceasefire holding, with displaced Lebanese returning to their homes.