Germany's conservatives celebrate, but far right enjoy record result

Friedrich Merz's conservative party has emerged victorious in Germany's election, leading rival parties but falling short of their anticipated 30% vote share. Addressing a crowd of jubilant supporters, Merz declared, "Let's celebrate tonight and get to work tomorrow." His first goal is to negotiate a coalition government with the third-placed Social Democrats led by Olaf Scholz.

Before the results were final, Merz emphasized that his primary focus would be European unity, aiming to gradually reduce dependence on the US.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) also made significant strides, securing a record second-place finish with 20.8% of the vote.

Alice Weidel, the AfD’s candidate for chancellor, celebrated with her supporters, but even her party had hoped for a better result, and the atmosphere at their headquarters remained notably subdued.

Friedrich Merz, 69, has never held a ministerial position but has vowed that, if he becomes Germany’s next chancellor, he will take a strong leadership role in Europe and strengthen support for Ukraine.

Many Germans were taken aback by former President Donald Trump's approach to Ukraine and Europe. Merz criticized Trump for demonstrating that "Americans are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe." Trump has called Ukraine's president a "dictator," and two prominent figures, Vice President JD Vance and billionaire Elon Musk, have openly supported the AfD ahead of the election. Vance was accused of interfering in the vote during a visit to Munich, while Musk has made several comments on his X platform.

For more on the German election:

Merz Faces Big Challenges in a Divided Germany

Merz: The Risk-Taker Who Once Flirted with the Far Right

Friedrich Merz's top priority will be to attempt forming a coalition with Olaf Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats, despite their historically poor performance, securing just 16.4% of the vote.

Both Merz's Christian Democrats and the SPD will hold leadership meetings, although Scholz will not participate in the discussions.

Merz is eager to establish a government by Easter. This could be achievable, as the two parties combined hold 328 seats, giving them a majority of 12 in the 630-seat parliament.

It wasn’t until the early hours of Monday that this became apparent.

After the collapse of Olaf Scholz's three-party coalition late last year, Merz had called on the electorate for a strong mandate to form a clear-cut coalition with a single party.

In the end, he secured enough seats primarily because two smaller parties failed to reach the threshold for parliamentary representation.

Merz argued that a two-party coalition would allow him to address Germany's key challenges over the next four years, from a struggling economy to tightening borders against irregular migration.

However, German voters had different plans. With an impressive 83% turnout, the highest since before reunification in 1990, they showed their desire for change.

Merz's Christian Democrats had hoped for more than the 28.6% of the vote they and their Bavarian sister party received.

The most likely coalition partner for Merz has always been the Social Democrats, known in Germany as a "GroKo" or grand coalition.

But the German electorate has become more fragmented, and the once-reliable dominance of the two main political forces in post-war Germany no longer guarantees success.

Under Alice Weidel, the AfD saw a 10-point surge in support compared to four years ago, with anger over rising prices and a series of deadly attacks in German cities fueling their rise. Three attacks occurred during the election campaign itself.

Weidel also capitalized on a successful TikTok campaign that resonated with a large number of young voters.

As results came in early Monday, it became clear that the AfD was far ahead in the east, projected to secure 34% according to a survey by public broadcaster ZDF.

"Germans have voted for change," Weidel declared. She predicted that Merz's efforts to form a coalition would fail, adding, "We'll have fresh elections—I don't think we’ll have to wait another four years."

While the eastern regions of Germany turned light blue in support of the AfD, much of the rest of the country leaned CDU black.

Merz, however, dismissed the AfD's rise, stating, "The party exists because problems have been left unsolved. They thrive when these problems worsen."

He argued, "We need to fix these issues... and then the AfD will disappear."

Merz was equally critical of the new Trump administration. Although Trump congratulated him on his victory, claiming it showed that Germans, like Americans, were tired of "the no common sense agenda, especially on energy and immigration," Merz didn’t take the comment as a gesture of support. In a TV discussion on Sunday night, he compared the US interventions to those from Moscow, calling them "no less dramatic, drastic, and ultimately outrageous."

Just last week, Trump had suggested that Kyiv was responsible for starting the war that Russia unleashed on Ukraine three years ago.

Merz's victory was quickly celebrated across much of Europe. France's Emmanuel Macron emphasized the importance of unity in uncertain times, aiming to "face the major challenges of the world and our continent," while UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer expressed hopes to "enhance our joint security and deliver growth for both our countries."

Friedrich Merz's Christian Democrats still rely heavily on older voters, while younger voters, particularly those aged 18-24, seem more drawn to the AfD and another rising party, the Left.

Not long ago, the Left party seemed on the verge of being excluded from parliament, with poll numbers well below the 5% threshold. However, a series of TikTok videos showcasing co-leader Heidi Reichinnek giving impassioned speeches in parliament went viral, pushing the party’s support close to 9%—with a quarter of their backing coming from younger voters, according to an ARD survey.