Hegseth says return to Ukraine's 2014 borders 'unrealistic'

Pete Hegseth, the new US Secretary of Defense, has declared that expecting Ukraine to revert to its pre-2014 borders is "unrealistic," referring to the period before Russia annexed Crimea and supported separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Speaking at a defense summit in Brussels, Hegseth emphasized that achieving "durable peace" would require a "realistic assessment of the battlefield." He also tempered expectations about Ukraine's NATO membership, rejected the idea of deploying US troops to Ukraine in any future security arrangement, and highlighted the need for European nations to significantly increase their defense spending.

Hegseth's comments come as a clear signal of the Trump administration's stance on the war in Ukraine and potential pathways to peace. They are likely to be met with disappointment in Ukraine, which has repeatedly insisted on NATO membership and has rejected any territorial concessions as part of a peace deal. Moscow, on the other hand, is likely to welcome his remarks.

The Secretary's statement also suggests a shift in US policy, with Hegseth proposing that European countries should bear the "overwhelming share" of financial and military support for Ukraine moving forward.

During his speech at the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, a gathering of over 40 nations supporting Ukraine, Hegseth reiterated the US commitment to a "sovereign and prosperous Ukraine," but stressed that attempting to return to the pre-2014 borders would only prolong the war and increase suffering.

Since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and began supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine, Moscow has controlled about 20% of Ukrainian territory, mainly in the east and south.

Hegseth said any durable peace must include "robust security guarantees to ensure that the war will not begin again".

However, he said "the United States does not believe that Nato membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement".

Instead, security guarantees should be backed by "capable European and non-European troops".

"If these troops are deployed as peacekeepers to Ukraine at any point, they should be deployed as part of a non-Nato mission and they should not be covered under Article 5," he said, referring to the alliance's mutual defence clause.

Hegseth also told Nato's European members that they would need to provide the lion's share of future aid for Kyiv, warning that Washington "will no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship" with its allies.

"Safeguarding European security must be an imperative for European members of Nato," Hegseth said. "Europe must provide the overwhelming share of future lethal and non-lethal aid to Ukraine."

The US has been Ukraine's biggest financial and military backer but Trump has been repeatedly critical of US aid spending and has said his priority is to end the war, which escalated in February 2022 after Russia's full-scale invasion.

Hegseth echoed calls by Trump for Nato allies to increase their defence spending to 5% of their GDP, instead of the current 2% target - saying the latter is "not enough".

The US currently spends roughly 3.4% of its GDP on defence, while the UK spends about 2.3%. Countries closer to Russia, like Poland and the Baltic states, spend the most proportionately at around 4%.

It will be challenging for Ukraine to hold back Russia's advances without the same level of support it received from Washington during Joe Biden's administration.

While Russia is suffering significant troop losses in the conflict, its commanders are prepared to intensify their efforts against Ukrainian defenses. Additionally, Russia is now spending more on defense than the entire continent of Europe combined, according to The Military Balance, an annual assessment of global military strengths.

This week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed his willingness to negotiate a peace deal with Russia but emphasized that Ukraine must approach any talks from a "position of strength."

In an interview with the Guardian, Zelensky said that if Donald Trump were able to bring Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table, Ukraine would be willing to offer a direct territorial exchange. He suggested giving up land Kyiv has controlled in Russia’s Kursk region since launching a surprise offensive six months ago, in exchange for Russian-occupied territory. However, Zelensky did not specify which part of Russian-held land Ukraine would ask for in return.

Zelensky also mentioned that he would offer lucrative reconstruction contracts to US companies, possibly as a way to gain Trump’s support.

Following Trump’s election win last November, Zelensky spoke with the then president-elect, describing their conversation as "constructive." Zelensky was optimistic that the war could end sooner with Trump in office.

However, Trump’s Democratic critics argue that his approach to the war is too aligned with Russian President Vladimir Putin and would ultimately result in Ukraine’s surrender, a situation they warn could threaten the entire European continent.

The prospect of a diplomatic resolution to the war remains uncertain, with no clear agreement on terms that would be acceptable to both sides.