Gaza ceasefire in peril as Israel and Hamas hit impasse

The second stage of Gaza's ceasefire, initially in doubt, now appears to be dead just as it was about to begin.

Concerns are growing that the conflict may reignite, worsening the already dire situation for Palestinians and endangering the lives of the hostages still held by Hamas.

Israel, with U.S. support, has announced a new deal after the first phase of the agreement ended on Saturday. In response, it has suspended all humanitarian aid to Gaza until Hamas agrees to the new terms.

Cairo sharply condemned this move, calling it a "flagrant violation." Both Egypt and Qatar, along with the U.S. as the key mediators, have accused Israel of breaching international humanitarian law by using food as a weapon of war.

The original agreement allowed for 600 trucks of essential humanitarian aid to enter Gaza every day, with many crossing during the 42 days of the first phase.

This has sparked significant criticism from Arab nations and humanitarian leaders alike. UN Secretary General António Guterres, who arrived in Cairo ahead of Tuesday's emergency Arab summit on Gaza's reconstruction, called for the "immediate" resumption of aid. He urged all sides to work to prevent a return to hostilities.

Under the agreement that took effect on January 19, this week marks the deadline for Israel to pull its troops from the Philadelphi corridor along the Egypt-Gaza border. Negotiations were also meant to intensify to end the war, secure the release of all remaining hostages, and release additional Palestinian prisoners in exchange.

However, Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, claims that U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff has proposed a new plan. While the details of the proposal have not been disclosed, Netanyahu stated that the first stage of the ceasefire would be extended for another 50 days, covering both the Islamic holy month of Ramadan and the Jewish holiday of Passover, and allowing for continued negotiations.

In return, Hamas would release half of the remaining hostages, according to Netanyahu. Israel maintains that 59 hostages are still being held, with up to 24 believed to be alive.

On Monday, Hamas condemned this sudden shift, calling it "a blatant attempt [by Israel] to evade the agreement and avoid entering into negotiations for the second phase."

Hamas views the hostages as critical leverage and is determined to retain them until the current confrontation concludes on terms it finds acceptable.

A day earlier, Egypt's Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty emphasized: "There is no alternative to the faithful and full implementation by all parties of what was signed last January."

Israeli media have reported on an Egyptian proposal suggesting that Hamas release three living hostages and the remains of three others in exchange for a two-week extension of the ceasefire and an Israeli withdrawal from both the Philadelphi corridor and the main north-south Salah-al-Din road.

However, an Arab diplomat familiar with the negotiations stated that talks have not yet resumed in Cairo, though "technical teams are in constant discussion."

A standoff was always expected at this stage. Prime Minister Netanyahu's primary goal has consistently been to "destroy" Hamas's military capabilities and political influence.

The highly staged ceremonies and demonstrations of strength by Hamas during the hostage releases have angered Israelis, highlighting that while Hamas has been significantly weakened, it still maintains control in Gaza.

Arab diplomatic sources suggest that while Hamas has acknowledged it will not govern Gaza once the war concludes, it is unwilling to fully dismantle its remaining influence. This is unacceptable to both Israel and its key ally, the United States.

On Sunday, the U.S. National Security Council expressed full support for Israel's "next step," placing the blame squarely on Hamas, stating that the group had "indicated it's no longer interested in a negotiated ceasefire."

In a video address, Prime Minister Netanyahu hailed President Donald Trump as "the greatest friend that Israel has ever had in the White House."

However, Israeli media report that Washington is also exerting pressure on Netanyahu not to restart the fighting. This kind of diplomatic pressure is widely believed to have helped push the ceasefire deal forward, even before the Trump administration took office on January 20.

Pressure is also mounting from Israelis who are increasingly anxious to see all hostages returned home. On Sunday night, hundreds of protesters broke through police barriers outside the prime minister's residence in Jerusalem.

The U.S. president, who is praised by his supporters as "the world's best peacemaker," may once again play a pivotal role in shaping the future of the conflict, whether toward war or peace.

In the meantime, both sides are preparing to resume fighting while they assess their options for achieving peace on their terms.